The Nasdaq 100, a long-standing symbol of U.S. tech-driven market strength, is showing signs of strain as newly imposed U.S.-China tariffs rattle investor sentiment and test the durability of its multi-year uptrend. Since October 2022, the index had delivered nine straight quarters of gains, defying economic headwinds and geopolitical uncertainty. But March 2025 marked a decisive shift.
As new tariffs came into effect, the index broke below its 12-week moving average and violated its long-term ascending trendline—a critical technical level that had previously signaled resilience. Analysts now warn that this breach may reflect more than a temporary correction; it could point to deteriorating fundamentals, especially if prolonged trade tensions erode corporate profitability and stall economic growth.
“Markets don’t just react to news—they react to surprises,” says Fedlan Kılıcaslan, founder of Warsaw-based Akif Capital. “If a risk is already priced in, the response may be muted. But when negative developments outpace expectations, as we’ve seen with these tariff hikes, technical support levels can quickly unravel.”
While fundamental analysis highlights how tariffs may weaken earnings and dampen consumer demand, technical analysis is sounding its own alarm. The loss of trend support suggests that investor conviction in growth stocks is waning.
To navigate this volatility, Akif Capital emphasizes the importance of combining technical signals with macroeconomic awareness. The firm advises investors to diversify portfolios, manage downside risk, and maintain a long-term perspective amid short-term turbulence.
The Nasdaq 100’s stumble doesn’t necessarily signal a full reversal—but it does mark a critical moment where caution, not complacency, should guide investment decisions.